TABLE 1.

Prior distribution estimates (elicited from experts) and Bayesian posterior distribution estimates for sensitivities and specificities of the fecal PCR assay, fecal culture by CENT, serum ELISA A, and serum ELISA B

Parameter and assayPrior distribution estimatePosterior distribution estimate
ModeULaLLbBetaMedian95% PI
Sensitivity
    Fecal PCR0.300.506.28, 13.320.290.24-0.35
    CENT0.600.807.04, 5.030.750.66-0.83
    ELISA A0.300.506.28, 13.320.270.23-0.32
    ELISA B0.300.506.28, 13.320.260.22-0.31
Specificity
    Fecal PCR0.9950.9901,137.51, 6.710.9930.986-0.997
    CENT0.9990.995919.87, 1.910.9980.994-0.999
    ELISA A0.9600.940384.13, 16.960.9490.938-0.960
    ELISA B0.9900.970212.12, 3.130.9800.971-0.987
  • a UL (upper limit), value considered by the experts (with 95% confidence) to be the highest possible value for that variable.

  • b LL (lower limit), value considered by the experts (with 95% confidence) to be the lowest possible value for that variable.